Friday, April 15, 2016

Fiscal 2Q 2016 Final Estimates


As of yesterday's market close of $112.10, AAPL is trading at a 11.0x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (8.1x when excluding next-12m net cash and div).

Pared down FY16 iPhone estimates considerably to align with recent Apple guidance, but heeding management suggestion it's only a short-term dip for a couple of quarters, and rebound to flat/slight unit growth next year. End effect is revised fair value and 1y target to $132/146 (was $140/157).

Expect very aggressive buyback activity during last and current quarter of up to $18b/qtr, partly confirmed by $15.6b debt issuance last quarter. Expect buyback authorization raised to $175b from current $140b by next year with long term debt levels up to $100b from current $78b. Expect a quarterly dividend increase of 11.5% to 58 cents per share.


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Mar-2016  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    52,050      -   2.00
Apple guide low       50,000   39.0   1.86*
Apple guide high      53,000   39.5   2.07*
Deagol estimates      53,373   39.9   2.11 (5.50b shares)


3mo ending Jun-2016  Rev($M)  GM(%)   EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----   ------
Analysts consensus    47,540      -    1.77
Apple guide low (e)   46,000   38.5    1.67*
Apple guide high(e)   49,000   39.5    1.91*
Deagol estimates      49,836   39.3    1.94 (5.34b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  ------
Analysts consensus   227,020   9.05
Deagol estimates     235,021   9.66


Valuation (fwd-12mo from)  EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash*  Div  Tot
-------------------------  ------  ---  ---  ----  ----  ---
Trailing       (Apr-2015)    9.20  14%   92    26  2.08  120
Fair value     (Apr-2016)   10.17  11%  102    28  2.32  132
1yr target     (Apr-2017)   10.85   7%  109    35  2.56  146

* Cash per share balance net of long-term debt
(click to enlarge)

F2Q16 Revenue breakdown:
iPhone    34,658 (52.0 × $666)
iPad       4,784 (10.5 × $456)
Mac        5,637 ( 4.5 × $1,253)
Services   5,541
Other      2,754 ( 2.5 × $431 = 1,078 Watch)

Income statement:
Revenue   53,373
COGS      32,066
GM        21,307  39.9%
OpEx       6,045
OpInc     15,262  28.6%
OIE          333
Pre-tax   15,595
Tax        3,977  25.5%
NetInc    11,618  21.8%
Shares     5,499
EPS($)      2.11

(amounts in millions except $ASP, $EPS, and %ratios)

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

A huge miss after many years. Are you going to update based on Apple's updated guidance (about 20% less than your estimates for next quarter)?

Daniel Tello said...

Yes, of course I'll update (closer to -15% from where I was in revs). More critical will be how I revise the projection for the next couple of years and beyond.

JavaJack said...

I'm interested in the revised numbers, too